This guide is a tour of the standards and frameworks that show up most often in AV safety conversations today. We will define each of the following standards and frameworks, explain how they connect to each other, and point out who on your team actually needs to care about them.

In this guide we will cover ISO 26262, 21448 (SOTIF), and 345x family; ASAM OpenODD OpenSCENARIO DSL and OpenDRIVE; IEEE 2846 and 3321; UL 4600, ISO 8800, UNECE WP.29 UN R157, UN R171 (DCAS), and UN R185 (ADS);  NCAP and NCAP 2029. 

Safety Foundations: ISO 26262 and ISO 21448 (SOTIF): 

ISO 26262 is the foundational functional safety standard for road vehicles. It covers the electrical and electronic systems in a car and provides a risk based process for making sure those systems do not fail in ways that hurt people. It introduced the ASIL (Automotive Safety Integrity Level) classification that most automotive safety engineers already live by, and it requires a safety case built on hazard analysis, risk assessment, and evidence that safety goals were met, while also supplying non-normative guidance on the safety case’s structure.

ISO 21448, known as SOTIF (Safety of the Intended Functionality), picks up where ISO 26262 leaves off. SOTIF deals with the case where nothing actually breaks, but the system still behaves unsafely because of a performance limitation or because it was used in a way that was reasonably foreseeable but not accounted for. Think of a perception system that simply cannot see well enough in heavy rain. Nothing malfunctioned. It just was not good enough for the situation. SOTIF is the standard that pushes teams to find those unknown and unsafe scenarios and reduce the risk they carry, largely through scenario based testing. SOTIF divides the scenario space into four quadrants along two axes, safe versus unsafe, and known versus unknown, and a primary goal of the SOTIF process is to shrink the unknown unsafe quadrant. Foretellix’s methodology of constrained random testing is one mechanism for searching out those unknown scenarios, and it is referenced in the annexes of this standard.

These two standards connect directly: ISO 26262 handles the “did something break” problem, and SOTIF handles the “did something work as designed but still cause a problem” problem. Together they form the backbone that almost every other standard on this list builds on or refers back to.

Who should know it: functional safety engineers, systems engineers, and safety managers responsible for the overall safety case. If your title includes the word “safety,” these two are your starting point.

Turning Safety Into Test Scenarios: The ISO 3450X Family and the ODD Standards

Knowing you need to find unsafe scenarios is one thing. Having a repeatable method for identifying, categorizing, and generating them is another. This is handled by a family of standards that people in the industry often just shorthand as “ISO 3450X,” since they share the same root number and cover different pieces of the same puzzle.

ISO 34501 starts the family off as the shared vocabulary. It defines the core terms used across the rest of the series, things like functional, abstract, logical, and concrete scenarios, so that every other standard in the family, and every team using them, means the same thing when they say “scenario.”

ISO 34502 provides the scenario based safety evaluation framework itself, currently focused on limited access highways. While the underlying engineering principles can technically be adapted, the standard itself was written with this specific operational domain in mind. The standard walks teams through identifying trigger conditions and hazards, deriving critical scenarios, and evaluating whether the system is free of unreasonable risk. Foretellix’s constrained random generation methodology, the approach for automatically producing large numbers of valid and meaningful concrete scenarios from a smaller set of abstract descriptions, fits directly into this part of the framework, and is referred to in its annexes.

ISO 34504 takes the scenarios identified through that process and defines how to categorize them, tagging each one with qualitative and quantitative information so scenarios can be organized, compared, and reused consistently across an organization rather than living as one off, ad hoc test cases.

ISO 34505 then closes the loop by defining how to evaluate those categorized scenarios and generate concrete test cases from them, turning a catalog of scenario categories into actual test cases that go beyond the scenario itself to include goals, KPIs, and measurements.

But none of this means much without a clear definition of where the vehicle is designed to operate in the first place. That is the job of the Operational Design Domain, or ODD. ASAM OpenODD and ISO 34503 both tackle this from slightly different angles. ISO 34503 specifies a hierarchical taxonomy for describing operating conditions, things like road type, weather, traffic mix, and infrastructure, so that an ODD can be defined consistently across teams and organizations. ASAM OpenODD builds a technology independent, machine readable data model for representing that same taxonomy, so ODD information can move between tools without getting lost in translation. ASAM OpenODD then goes further by adding technology specific references to represent this data model in different languages, such as ASAM OpenSCENARIO DSL and YAML.

The connection across the whole family runs in a clean line: 34501 gives everyone the same words, 34503 and OpenODD define where the vehicle is designed to operate, 34502 defines how to find and evaluate the risky scenarios within that domain, 34504 organizes those scenarios into categories, and 34505 turns the scenarios into concrete, runnable test cases.

Who should know it: verification and validation engineers, scenario engineers, and product teams defining where and how a vehicle is meant to operate.

Describing the World: ASAM OpenSCENARIO DSL and ASAM OpenDRIVE

NOTE: While there are few standards and approaches to describe scenarios and road networks/geographies – this blog is focusing on two that best match the rest of the suite.

Once you know what scenarios matter, you need a common language to describe them so different tools and teams can actually use them. ASAM OpenSCENARIO DSL is a human and machine readable language for describing test scenarios for ADAS and ADS development. It supports abstract, logical, and concrete levels of description, meaning a single scenario can be written once at a high level and then expanded into thousands of concrete variations without being tied to one specific map or location.

ASAM OpenDRIVE complements it by describing the road network itself. Lanes, intersections, elevation, and road geometry all live in OpenDRIVE files, giving simulation tools a standard way to represent the physical world a scenario plays out in.

The connection is almost literal: OpenSCENARIO DSL describes the actors and their behavior, while OpenDRIVE describes the stage they are performing on. Neither one works well without the other in a simulation based verification pipeline, though OpenSCENARIO DSL scenarios can also be used with other road network descriptions.

Who should know it: simulation engineers, tool developers, and anyone building or running scenario libraries for virtual testing.

Setting the Rules for Other Road Users: IEEE 2846 and IEEE 3321

An automated driving system does not just need to know its own limits. It needs reasonable assumptions about how other drivers, cyclists, and pedestrians might behave, especially in an emergency. IEEE 2846 defines a minimum set of reasonable assumptions and foreseeable behaviors for other road users that should be considered when building safety related models for an ADS. It essentially answers the question, how aggressively might that other car brake or swerve, in a way that is bounded and defensible rather than guessed at.

IEEE 3321 is the companion recommended practice. It provides guidance on how to actually apply the IEEE 2846 assumptions inside real safety related models, including how to update those assumptions as a scenario unfolds over time and how to validate that a model used them correctly.

Who should know it: planning and prediction engineers, and safety modeling teams working on collision avoidance and behavior prediction logic.

Building the Safety Case: UL 4600

Most of the standards above focus on a piece of the puzzle. UL 4600, officially the Standard for Safety for the Evaluation of Autonomous Products, focuses on the whole picture. It is a technology agnostic, goal based standard that tells you how to assemble everything, hazard analysis, testing evidence, tool qualification, data integrity, and more, into one coherent safety case. It is especially relevant for fully autonomous systems that operate without a human fallback driver, and it is designed to work alongside ISO 26262 and SOTIF rather than replace them.

Who should know it: program leads, safety case authors, and anyone who eventually has to stand in front of a regulator or an insurer and defend why a vehicle is safe enough to deploy.

Safety Meets AI: ISO 8800

AI and machine learning components, especially in perception, do not fail the way traditional software does. They can be systematically wrong in ways that hazard analysis techniques built for deterministic code were never designed to catch. ISO 8800 (published as ISO/PAS 8800) fills that gap. It defines a framework for managing AI safety in road vehicles that tailors and extends the existing ISO 26262 and ISO 21448 approaches, covering things like data quality, architectural safeguards, and the evidence needed to argue that an AI system is safe across its lifecycle.

Who should know it: machine learning engineers, data teams, and safety engineers working specifically on perception and AI powered decision making components.

The Regulations That Tie It All Together: UNECE WP.29, UN R157, UN R171 (DCAS), and UN R185 (ADS)

Everything above is guidance, industry practice, or voluntary standards, ISO standards and others carry no obligation unless an authorized authority formally mandates them. UNECE WP.29, the World Forum for Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations, is where guidance turns into binding law. The UNECE regulations are binding and mutually recognized (reciprocal recognition) across the members of the original 1958 Agreement, which includes much of Europe, Russia, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, and others. The companion GTR is the non-binding version which Contracting Parties such as the US, Canada, China, and India transpose into their own national law.

Under WP.29, individual regulations are issued for specific vehicle systems, and three of them matter most for anyone working on driving automation today: UN R157, UN R171, and, most recently, UN R185.

UN R157 was the first of the three, covering Automated Lane Keeping Systems, and it remains the regulation most people mean when they talk about the original ALKS rules for SAE Level 3 systems operating in constrained highway conditions*.  

UN R171 followed in 2024, and it covers a different, more common category: Driver Control Assistance Systems, or DCAS. DCAS are SAE Level 2 systems that assist a driver with steering and speed on a sustained basis but never take over the full driving task (DDT)  itself. The driver stays responsible and must keep monitoring the road and the system. UN R171 sets safety and performance requirements for these systems, including driver engagement monitoring and clear consumer facing information about what the system can and cannot do, so drivers do not become overreliant on it.

UN R185 is the newest and, for full automation, the most significant. After roughly seven years of development, WP.29 approved this regulation for the certification of Automated Driving Systems (ADS) at SAE levels 3 and 4, developed alongside a companion Global Technical Regulation for jurisdictions that use that instrument instead. 

UN R185 takes a performance based, safety case approach. Rather than prescribing exact engineering methods, it requires manufacturers to demonstrate, through a Safety Management System and a documented safety case built on claims, arguments, and evidence, that a self-driving system is free from unreasonable safety risk and performs at least as competently as a careful human driver.

Here is the part that matters most for anyone working in AV verification: coverage is a central requirement of UN R185. Manufacturers must produce data showing and analyzing the coverage achieved during development, verification, validation, and testing. That includes unified coverage aggregated across simulation, track, and real world testing pillars, a clear articulation of the methodology, metrics, and targets used to determine sufficient ODD coverage, and verification and validation plans built around those same metrics and targets. Coverage can be measured on the test scenarios themselves as well as on the behavioral competencies and key performance indicators demonstrated during testing.

Foretellix was an influential member of the team that developed this regulation, introducing coverage driven validation concepts to the forum in early 2020, concepts that evolved into the coverage requirements now written into UN R185.

This is where the whole standards landscape connects. ISO 26262 and SOTIF define what safety means. The ISO 3450X family and the ODD standards give you the tools to define, evaluate, categorize, and generate the scenarios that test that safety. OpenSCENARIO DSL and OpenDRIVE describe those scenarios and the roads they play out on. IEEE 2846 and 3321 make sure your models about other road users are reasonable. UL 4600 and ISO 8800 help you build and argue a complete safety case, including for AI components. And UN R157, UN R171, and UN R185 are where all of that work becomes the evidence a regulator actually asks for, covering ADAS and full ADS respectively, with coverage sitting at the center of the ask for the most automated systems.

Who should know it: everyone above. This section matters especially to the V&V and safety engineers who build the evidence, and to the executives, regulatory affairs teams, and program leaders accountable for it, all of whom need to know that today’s engineering work will satisfy what regulators require tomorrow.

Consumer Ratings Catch Up: NCAP and Euro NCAP Vision 2030

Euro NCAP’s current roadmap, Vision 2030, marks a shift from simply requiring safety systems to be equipped to rigorously assessing how well they perform. The roadmap runs on a three-year update cycle, with major checkpoints in 2026, 2029, and 2032. The 2026 update, already detailed, retires the current four-box rating system in favor of one organized around the phases of an accident (safe driving, crash avoidance, crash protection, post-crash safety) and expands driver/occupant monitoring requirements. Later checkpoints are expected to continue that shift toward measurable, real-world performance, rather than simple presence checks. Euro NCAP’s separate Assisted Driving grading remains complementary to the main safety rating for now; Euro NCAP has said this policy will be reviewed periodically and may eventually be folded into the main rating once real-world data supports it, but no fixed date has been set for that integration.

Who should know it: anyone responsible for a vehicle’s overall safety rating rather than just its regulatory compliance.

The Bottom Line

No single standard gets an autonomous vehicle certified. It takes the full stack, from functional safety fundamentals through scenario description languages to the regulation that finally asks for proof. Understanding how these pieces fit together, rather than treating each one as an isolated checkbox, is what separates a safety program that merely complies from one that is actually defensible. 

The Foretellix Physical AI toolchain was built with exactly that connected view in mind, helping teams generate the scenarios, measure the coverage, and produce the evidence that standards like these, and regulations like UN R157, UN R171, and UN R185, ultimately require.

Footnotes:
* While this blog refers to SAE levels of driving automation for simplicity, the regulations themselves do not use these terms as binding classifications. UN R185, for example, defines two ADS types instead: ADS Type 1, which requires a fallback driver, and ADS Type 2, which does not, a distinction similar to but not identical with SAE Levels 3 and 4.

NVIDIA has released Alpamayo 2 Super, an E2E Physical AI foundation model for advanced autonomous development. This open reasoning Vision-Language-Action (VLA) model is available for modification, redistribution and commercial use under the OpenMDW 1.1 license.

Alpamayo 2 Super is NVIDIA’s most powerful open driving foundation model to date. The 34-billion-parameter model combines perception, reasoning, planning and action across multiple autonomous driving tasks.

Alpamayo 2 Super’s technical capabilities and broad commercial accessibility make this release a significant contribution to the autonomous vehicle industry.

Openly available AI driving models create an even greater validation challenge

As foundation models become more capable and widely available, validating them becomes exponentially more difficult.

The challenge is no longer only developing an intelligent driving model but also fine-tuning, integrating, and validating the AV stack. Validation is required to demonstrate, with measurable evidence, that the AV stack behaves safely across the Operational Design Domain (ODD), including the rare, complex, and safety-critical situations that matter most.

Developers need to answer questions such as:

  • Which driving situations has the model actually been evaluated against?
  • Where do coverage gaps still exist in the ODD?
  • How does the model behave when critical scenario parameters are systematically varied?
  • Which scenarios expose weaknesses in reasoning or planning?
  • What evidence is required to demonstrate that the system is ready for deployment?

Answering these questions requires a scalable, independent, measurable evaluation methodology that combines real-world data, simulation, scenario variation, and coverage analysis into a continuous validation workflow.

Validation is becoming a competitive, and regulatory, requirement

As autonomous driving programs accelerate, independent validation is becoming a key differentiator rather than a final verification step.

Development teams must continuously evaluate new model versions, compare performance across releases, identify regressions, and generate objective evidence that safety is improving over time.

At the same time, regulatory expectations continue to evolve.

UNECE WP.29 R185, which takes effect in January 2027, requires manufacturers to demonstrate coverage of the Operational Design Domain as part of their safety case, supported by documented methodologies, measurable targets, and evidence gathered across virtual, track, and real-world testing.

For foundation-model-based autonomous driving systems, scalable validation is becoming as important as model development itself.

Foretellix provides the validation layer for AI-powered autonomous driving

Foretellix is working with the NVIDIA Alpamayo ecosystem through a reference solution that combines the Foretellix platform with NVIDIA technologies to enable scalable AI-powered AV development and validation.

The solution transforms driving data into measurable evaluation workflows by:

  • Curating meaningful driving scenarios from large-scale driving data.
  • Generating controlled scenario variations to systematically evaluate model behavior.
  • Measuring scenario and ODD coverage to identify critical safety gaps.
  • Tracking evaluation results across successive model iterations.
  • Producing objective evidence to support deployment decisions and regulatory compliance.

The reference solution also integrates NVIDIA Omniverse NuRec, Cosmos, and AlpaSim, enabling real-world drive logs to be reconstructed as simulation-ready environments that can be systematically varied to evaluate AI driving systems under controlled conditions.

Rather than simply asking whether a model performs well, development teams can continuously understand where it performs well, where it does not, and what additional evidence is needed before deployment.

Learn more about the Foretellix NVIDIA Alpamayo Reference Solution.

Building the next generation of autonomous driving

Foundation models such as NVIDIA Alpamayo 2 Super represent a major step forward in autonomous driving AI.

As these models become the engine of autonomous vehicles, scalable validation becomes the foundation for safe deployment.

Together, NVIDIA’s AI foundation models and Foretellix’s independent validation platform enable development teams to build, measure, validate, and continuously improve AI-powered driving systems with objective, scalable evidence across real-world data, reconstructed environments, and simulation.

Learn more about how Foretellix is enabling NVIDIA developers to design, test, and safely deploy AI-powered vehicles with greater confidence and scale.

The future of autonomous driving will not be defined only by how intelligent AI models become, but by how confidently we can prove they are ready for the road.

If you can’t trust AI to verify an autonomous driving stack, can you still use AI in the verification and validation (V&V) process? Yes, but not where most people first assume.

Working with AV programs at scale, we’ve found that one of the most valuable ways to apply AI in V&V today is not in deciding whether a system passes or fails, but in helping engineers interpret verification data that has grown beyond human-scale analysis.

Modern AV development generates enormous amounts of data across real-world driving, simulation, replay, and other test environments. Understanding which conditions matter, where meaningful gaps exist, and what actions to prioritize requires engineers to analyze datasets that continue to grow in both scale and complexity.

AI-assisted analysis helps teams navigate that complexity by accelerating the exploration, interpretation, and action on verification data while keeping the underlying verification methodology deterministic and reproducible.

This blog explores how Foretellix applies AI on top of structured V&V workflows to help engineers identify coverage gaps, prioritize testing, and build stronger, evidence-backed safety cases.

The Problem: Verification Data Has Exceeded Human-Scale Interpretation

V&V engineers today face a widening gap. On one hand, they have massive amounts of raw, noisy data: real-world fleet logs, simulation results, replay systems, HIL testing, coverage reports, and KPI outputs, each holding a piece of the overall verification picture. On the other hand, what they actually need is analysis: a coherent understanding of how the system behaves across the Operational Design Domain (ODD). Closing that gap starts with processing the raw data into structured scenario intelligence, automatically labeling every scenario and its parameters and organizing them under a well-thought-out verification plan. Only on top of that structured foundation can AI meaningfully help analyze the data, find patterns, and answer questions.

A modern AV verification workspace contains millions of test runs spanning thousands of coverage dimensions, with verification plans nested ten or more levels deep. Even highly experienced engineers struggle to manually trace patterns across datasets of this size.

The challenge becomes even harder because autonomous driving failures rarely depend on a single variable. A lane-change scenario alone can vary across illumination, weather, road geometry, traffic density, ego speed, and contender behavior. Each additional dimension multiplies the number of combinations engineers must evaluate.

The result is a combinatorial problem that quickly exceeds what humans can reliably interpret through dashboards, spreadsheets, and manual investigation.

This is where many V&V workflows begin to slow down. Engineers spend significant time searching for relevant data, correlating failures across systems, and determining which gaps are actually important. In many organizations, extracting insight from verification data now consumes more engineering effort than generating the data itself.

AI-Assisted Analysis on Top of Deterministic Verification

Foretellix addresses this challenge through the Foretify Physical AI Toolchain, which enables data-driven development, validation, and safety evaluation for Physical AI systems, such as advanced autonomous vehicles.

Within this toolchain, Foretify Evaluate unifies real-world and simulation data into a shared framework so teams can measure coverage and performance consistently across the ODD. This creates a structured foundation for large-scale verification analysis.

The verification workflow itself remains deterministic and reproducible. Coverage-driven verification methodologies, semi-formal verification plans, KPIs, coverage maps, coverage models, and high-accuracy temporal scenario labeling generate the underlying structured verification framework. The AI operates on top of that data to support analysis and navigation.

AI Assistant

The AI doesn’t determine whether a system is safe, whether a test passes, or whether a scenario qualifies as an event of concern. Those decisions remain grounded in the verification framework and its deterministic methodologies. The role of AI is helping engineers interpret verification data at a scale that manual workflows can no longer support.

Every insight remains traceable to specific scenarios, runs, coverage buckets, metrics, and log segments. Engineers can drill directly from a high-level observation into the underlying evidence that produced it.

A Different Way to Work With Verification Data

Traditionally, engineers investigating verification results move between dashboards, reports, scripts, and manually constructed queries. Understanding a coverage gap or identifying the conditions associated with a failure can require exporting data into notebooks or building custom analysis flows.

AI-assisted analysis changes that interaction model. Instead of manually navigating tools, engineers can ask questions in natural language:

  • Where are the largest coverage gaps?
  • Which conditions correlate most strongly with failures?
  • Where should additional testing be prioritized?
  • Which parts of the verification plan are currently unreachable, and how should the plan be adapted?

The system responds with structured, evidence-backed answers while preserving the context of the investigation. Engineers can continue refining questions, drilling deeper into scenarios, and exploring relationships across datasets without restarting the analysis process each time.

This creates a much more iterative workflow where analysis becomes an ongoing exploration of the verification data rather than a sequence of disconnected reporting tasks.

Making Combinatorial Complexity Manageable

One of the biggest difficulties in AV verification is understanding how conditions interact. A system may appear to struggle with a certain maneuver, but the actual issue often emerges only under a very specific combination of circumstances. A failure might occur during a lane change under low-light conditions, in dense traffic, on curved road geometry, and within a narrow ego-speed range.

Combinatorial Complexity

These relationships are difficult to identify manually because they span multiple interacting dimensions simultaneously.

AI-assisted analysis helps teams identify statistically meaningful patterns across those dimensions. Instead of looking at isolated events one at a time, engineers can understand where failures cluster, which combinations contribute most strongly to events of concern, and where gaps exist relative to target ODD coverage.

This allows teams to distinguish meaningful signals from background noise much more efficiently.

What This Looks Like in Practice

Consider an engineer reviewing a verification workspace built from millions of miles of driving data alongside several million simulation runs, all processed into structured coverage information.

The workspace returns a verification grade of 65.45%. That number alone does not explain what should happen next.

Instead of opening multiple dashboards and manually correlating reports, the engineer can simply ask the AI: “Where are the biggest coverage gaps?”

The system identifies several underrepresented coverage areas, including nighttime lane changes in high-density traffic conditions.

The engineer follows up: “In the conditions we have encountered, where are we seeing the most events of concern?”

The system identifies a statistically significant concentration of events under a specific combination of traffic density, road geometry, and lighting conditions occurring well above the fleet baseline. 

The results are presented through structured visualizations that make complex relationships easier to interpret, allowing engineers to quickly understand where failures cluster, how coverage is distributed across the ODD, and which conditions contribute most strongly to events of concern.

The engineer then requests the associated log segments and receives direct links to the relevant scenarios, timestamps, routes, and sensor traces. Those insights can also feed directly into the next stage of the workflow. Rather than sending out the testing fleet to try and close the identified gaps in the ODD, by using Foretellix’s synthetic data generation (SDG) capabilities, teams can generate additional variations of the identified scenarios. This will enable an expansion of the ODD coverage, exploration edge cases, and creation of new training and validation data focused on the conditions associated with problematic behavior.

Foretify Manager Assistant

What previously required hours of exporting CSVs, building scripts, and cross-referencing dashboards now takes a few iterative questions.

Critically, every conclusion still comes from the underlying verification methodology and structured verification data. The AI didn’t decide what qualified as an event of concern. The verification framework defined that logic. The AI just accelerated the process of finding patterns inside the data.

Faster, More Consistent Decisions

Beyond accelerating individual investigations, this workflow changes who can participate in verification analysis. Tasks that previously required deep familiarity with specific verification structures or internal tooling become more broadly accessible and allow teams to extract meaningful insight from the data.

The result is faster and more consistent decision-making across V&V teams, with analysis methodology shared rather than locked inside individual expertise.

Safety Cases Built on Traceable Evidence

Building a safety case requires clear, reproducible evidence showing how the system performs across relevant conditions and scenarios. Foretify Evaluate supports this by maintaining a direct connection between analysis results and the underlying verification data. Coverage metrics, run outcomes, scenario labels, and verification results remain traceable to specific scenarios and test executions.

That traceability is essential for safety engineering and regulatory review. The system doesn’t produce conclusions such as “the AI believes the vehicle is safe.” Instead, it presents the conditions tested, the outcomes observed, the coverage achieved, and the gaps that still remain.

The AI accelerates how that evidence is explored, assembled, and interpreted, while the evidence itself remains grounded in deterministic verification methodologies.

Scaling Verification Analysis for Physical AI Systems

Returning to the question that we opened with: where can AI be trusted in the verification process?

Whether AI should eventually play a role in verification decisions, determining whether a system is safe, whether a test passes, whether a scenario qualifies as an event of concern, is one the industry will continue to debate as the underlying technology matures. 

As of today, those judgments need to remain anchored in deterministic verification methodology, where every conclusion is traceable to specific scenarios, runs, and metrics. The maturity and auditability required for AI to make those calls at the rigor a safety case demands isn’t there yet.

What is clear is where AI already brings efficiency: helping engineers understand verification data that has grown beyond human-scale interpretation and finding patterns hidden across millions of test runs and thousands of dimensions. Moving teams from “we have the data” to “we know what it means.” 

That’s a problem AI can already solve, with full traceability and without compromising the integrity of the underlying verification methodology. As autonomous systems continue to grow in capability and complexity, that role becomes essential, not optional. The rigor stays in the verification methodology. The AI helps engineers understand the results.

TL;DR: AI can accelerate autonomous vehicle development through scenario generation, sensor simulation, and smarter testing, but it cannot reliably validate its own outputs.  Learn how Foretellix combines AI capabilities with rule-based, formal validation and structured coverage workflows to create trustworthy, physically accurate scenarios, close testing gaps, and support safer, production-ready AV development.

Artificial intelligence is changing the game everywhere, and autonomous vehicles (AVs) are no exception. Instead of relying on manually coded decision-making, the AI-Powered Autonomy stack is trained to predict, plan, and respond to traffic situations. For AV developers, AI is unlocking faster and more affordable ways to build and test driving stacks. Think photo-realistic sensor data, smarter data curation and labelling, spotting unsafe behaviours, trained traffic models, and a lot more.

The big win? Development moves faster, the systems adapt better, and teams can cover way more traffic scenarios than ever before. All of this is key for getting closer to true driver-out autonomy.

At Foretellix, we are strong supporters of an open AV partner ecosystem. We’ve integrated our solutions with tools and technologies from NVIDIA, Parallel Domain, InvertedAI, Voxel51, and others to deliver cutting-edge AI-powered toolchains. 

But here’s the catch: while AI brings a ton of benefits, it can’t be trusted to fully check its own work. It’s a bit like a student trying to grade their own exam, or an artist trying to be the sole judge of their own painting. The AV stack built by AI is still vulnerable to blind spots, hallucinations, hidden biases, and subtle mistakes if it’s left to self-validate. 

In this blog, we’ll dig into why relying on AI alone is risky and insufficient for autonomous vehicles – and more importantly, how combining it with rule-based validation builds a workflow that’s not only safer but also structured and systematic. Think of it as putting guardrails on AI: they keep it from veering off course while also guiding it along a clear, reliable path.

The AI Hope for Self-Driving Cars

When self-driving cars first hit the headlines, the story almost sounded like science fiction. Articles painted a future of safer roads and easier commutes, and companies jumped in, racing to be the first to roll out driverless vehicles. But the journey turned out to be tougher than expected, and many projects missed their deadlines.

That’s when artificial intelligence started to take center stage. Traditionally, AI was mainly used to detect and classify objects around the car. But a new promising approach granted AI a larger role: now it helps predict what other road users might do and decide how the car should respond. Instead of hand-coding every single traffic rule, engineers began training neural networks to imitate safe driver behavior (imitation learning) or to learn through trial and error with feedback (reinforcement learning). 

AI was also applied to another game-changing path: simulation. Gathering real-world driving data is slow, expensive, and sometimes dangerous. But AI can generate endless virtual traffic scenarios, letting AVs practice in a safe digital environment before facing the real world. In many ways, AI evolved from being just one piece of the puzzle to becoming the engine pushing the whole field forward.

So, is the problem solved? Not quite. The complexity remains. But now the hardest part of the problem shifted from writing software rules to training and validating AI models with enough diverse driving scenarios.

So Why Can’t We Just Rely on AI for Stack Development?

Imagine you’re using an LLM to dig deep into a topic. It’s quick, smart, and can give you tons of information, but there are two big issues:

  • Accuracy isn’t guaranteed: Not every answer is reliable. You might get hallucinations, flattering or over-agreeable responses (sycophancy), or even broken links.
  • Research takes structure: Answers often come scattered across multiple queries. To make sense of them, you have to gather, filter, and organize the results into something coherent and complete.

Now, swap out “LLM research” for “training and validating an autonomous vehicle.” AI  can generate traffic scenarios or estimate the AV behaviours upon request, but the same challenges pop up – can it be trusted to make real-life or death decisions.

  • Accuracy: AI can’t reliably grade its own work. You still need rule-based checks to make sure a scenario is safe. Plus, AI-generated scenes might look super realistic, but they’re not always physically correct, and tweaking small details can be tricky.
  • Structure and completeness: If a scenario isn’t in the training set, AI may stumble. A structured workflow is essential to guide AI across the full Operational Design Domain (ODD), covering both known challenges and hidden edge cases.

And unlike research notes, the cost of mistakes here is huge – we’re talking about real people’s lives on the road. Add to that the massive scale of traffic situations, and evolving regulatory requirements, such as SOTIF, and you can see why a systematic process is non-negotiable.

Making AI Production Ready: The Foretellix Approach

AI is powerful for generating diverse, naturally behaving scenarios, but transforming that capability into a production-ready solution presents a completely different challenge. At Foretellix, we’ve developed our own AI engines, yet we know that relying on AI alone isn’t enough. That’s why we combine them with a formal, accurate, and scalable pipeline to complement and strengthen AI capabilities. 

Here’s how it works: when a user requests a specific scenario, our scenario generator creates it, adjusting the behaviors of each vehicle and object in real time to meet the user’s intent. Unlike AI alone, these scenarios are guaranteed to perform as designed and remain physically accurate – no surprises, no shortcuts.

Then comes the synergy: once we have a validated trajectory-level scenario, we hand it over to AI tools to generate realistic sensor data. This combination gives you the best of both worlds: formally guaranteed scenarios paired with the richness and photo-realism of AI-generated inputs. On top of that, our pipeline validates the AI outputs to ensure every test is trustworthy and aligned with system requirements.

To make this process thorough and manageable, we built an automation and management layer. It translates project goals into actionable coverage goals – defined as the measurable criteria that ensure all relevant driving behaviors, conditions, and edge cases are adequately tested. The system then selects the right engines to fill gaps and provides a high-level dashboard so teams can track progress and apply expert judgment where it matters most.

The result is a seamless workflow that leverages both our formal technology and AI in perfect harmony, accelerating development while maintaining rigorous safety and reliability standards.

Delivering Trustworthy Scenarios and Results

So what does this toolchain actually deliver? Here’s a closer look:

  1. Formal, accurate, and scalable scenario generation and vehicle performance assessment.
    • Abstract scenarios, clear intent: While AI models often generate scenarios based on statistical patterns, our constraint-based scenario generator uses the formal ASAM OpenSCENARIO DSL to create precise and reproducible results.
    • Its semantic foundation ensures that every scenario is both meaningful and directly aligned with user-defined goals, not just plausible. Teams start with a clear behavioral description of their goal (like “a car cuts in aggressively on a wet road”). and then generate thousands of parameterized, physics-compliant variations.
    • Our pre-validated libraries make it easy to expand coverage without losing control of what’s being tested or why.
    • Controlled variations: With Foretellix, you can replay real-world drives while adding intelligent environmental and behavioral variations. This enables end-to-end testing of AI systems with inputs that are both diverse and physically plausible. It’s especially useful when real-world data is scarce or when edge cases are too risky to capture on public roads.

  2. Built-in validation: Whether a scenario is created manually, generated through AI, or derived from logs, it goes through built-in validation. Every test must meet its intent, respect physics, and align with safety standards AI-generated tests that fail to meet their intent are automatically filtered out, preventing bias in validation or training results. The outcome: failures provide meaningful insights, and passes accurately reflect true system performance under well-defined conditions. Process automation and management.
    • Structured workflows: Define project goals, automatically launch tasks, and detect coverage gaps while using the best engine for the job.
    • Unified testing: Combine on-road testing and virtual simulation into a single seamless workflow. This lets you tune simulation based on real-world observations and get a complete picture of your AV stack.
    • Best-in-class integrations: Our system plays nicely with top industry tools, so you always get the most capable solution available.

Want to Learn More?

Whether you’re building an end-to-end stack that uses sensor data or a rule-based stack that works with object lists and sensor inputs, our approach helps make development and testing more reliable without compromising safety or rigor. It also supports seamless integration with your own AI engines, so you can leverage internal models or toolchains within a structured, validated framework. As AI toolchains evolve, having a future-proof validation approach that can incorporate advanced AI tools while maintaining structure and safety is essential.

By working with leading AV developers and partnering with top AI engine providers, we continue to refine and expand our approach. We’d be glad to share ideas and explore how it could fit your workflow.

For more details, contact us.

TL;DR: Trust in simulation is now a critical part of proving AV safety. This blog explores how Foretellix is creating a unified, measurable methodology to evaluate simulation fidelity and turn simulation from a black box into a defensible part of the validation process.

Autonomous vehicle safety depends on trust, both in the vehicle’s behavior and in the tools used to validate it. As simulation becomes the backbone of AV testing, the industry faces a critical challenge: proving that simulation results accurately reflect the real world. This blog explores Foretellix’s unified approach to making simulation trust measurable, explainable, and repeatable.

Simulation is essential for validating autonomous vehicles because real-world testing alone cannot cover the vast range of scenarios needed to demonstrate safety at scale. However, simulation is only useful if its results can be trusted.

That trust is hard to earn. By nature, simulation is a simplification of reality, built on models, assumptions, and abstractions. If we’re going to rely on it for safety decisions, we need to understand how well it reflects the real-world and where it falls short.

Today, there is no standard method to measure this. Regulations require simulation to be “fit for purpose,” but they do not define how to evaluate realism, coverage, or fidelity. Consequently, most AV teams are left improvising.  While some companies, such as Waymo through its published safety reports, share data and transparency frameworks, there is still no unified industry method for measuring simulation trust.

Foretellix is working to change that. We’re developing a structured methodology for simulation trustworthiness, grounded in measurable criteria and repeatable processes. The goal is to equip AV teams with a clear foundation for using simulation with confidence, grounded in realism, transparency, and measurable fidelity.

The Challenge of Proving Simulation Realism

Simulation plays a central role in AV development, but the industry still lacks a common framework for evaluating whether simulation results are reliable. While safety standards like ISO 26262 and UNECE regulations acknowledge the need for simulation tools to be “fit for purpose,” they stop short of defining how to assess that fitness, especially when it comes to simulating complex, dynamic traffic environments.

In practice, most teams resort to custom-built comparisons between simulated and real-world drives. These efforts often lack consistency, and rely on fuzzy definitions of realism. One engineer might examine actor behavior, another might focus on system-level KPIs, and a third on sensor noise or scenario variety. Without shared terminology, metrics, or methods, it is challenging to know whether the simulation is good enough, or what “good enough” even means.

 

The result is uncertainty. Test engineers and developers don’t always know which gaps still exist in their testing. OEMs struggle to justify simulation-based validation to regulators or internal stakeholders. And teams are left questioning whether the insights they gain from simulation can be trusted in the real world.

Foretellix’s Vision for Simulation Trustworthiness

To address the ambiguity surrounding simulation credibility, Foretellix is developing a unified methodology that makes simulation trustworthiness measurable, explainable, and repeatable. Instead of treating simulation as a black box, this approach breaks it down into two distinct but interconnected areas: toolchain qualification and simulation credibility. Together, these two pillars form the basis of Foretellix’s effort to make simulation trustworthiness not just a feeling, but a framework.

Toolchain Qualification

Before simulation results can be trusted, the tools generating and evaluating those results must be proven reliable. That’s the role of toolchain qualification: to ensure that every component of the internal Foretellix toolchain works correctly, and is consistently proven by thorough testing.

This qualification process includes:

  • Robust development practices: Including modular design, secure coding, and continuous integration to prevent defects early in the development lifecycle.
  • Comprehensive QA processes: Combining unit tests, regression tests, and integration tests to validate both individual components and the toolchain as a whole.
  • Integration testing: Ensuring that behavioral, physical, and evaluation components interact correctly across abstraction levels and real-world usage scenarios.
  • Tool certification: Supporting formal assessments, such as ISO 26262 certification, to demonstrate alignment with industry safety and quality standards.

The primary objective of toolchain qualification is not to directly enhance simulation realism. Rather it aims to establish confidence in the underlying infrastructure, thereby ensuring that simulation results are not being distorted or misreported due to issues in the tools that produce, process, or evaluate them.

Simulation Fidelity

Simulation fidelity refers to the degree to which a simulation accurately replicates real-world driving behavior, conditions, and system performance. It’s a structured collection of evaluation categories, each targeting a different aspect of realism and trustworthiness.

Foretellix’s methodology distinguishes between system-level and sub-system-level fidelity. System-level fidelity assesses the end-to-end vehicle behavior in simulation, while sub-system-level fidelity evaluates the fidelity of an isolated simulation component. Both system- and sub-system-level  simulation fidelity are further defined through the following dimensions.

1. System-Level Simulation Fidelity

1.1 System Performance Fidelity

Evaluates whether the autonomous system behaves similarly in simulation and in the real world under comparable conditions. This is typically assessed through statistical comparison of real-world drive logs and simulation logs, focusing on system responses and critical events.

1.2 Scenario Reproduction Fidelity

Measures how accurately a specific real-world scenario can be replayed in simulation.

  • Ego reproduction fidelity: How closely the ego vehicle’s trajectory, velocity, and other behaviors match between the real-world and re-simulated run.
  • Actor reproduction fidelity: How precisely other agents (e.g., vehicles, pedestrians) are recreated in simulation relative to the original scene.
1.3 Scenario Realism

Assesses how natural and believable the simulation looks and feels, both from a technical and human perspective.

  • Actor model realism: Do agents behave in ways consistent with real-world norms?
  • Physical maneuver realism: Are motions physically plausible (e.g., no instantaneous sideways jumps, acceleration within vehicle performance limits)?
  • Behavioral maneuver realism: Do agents make reasonable decisions within the given context (e.g., yielding, overtaking, obeying traffic signals)?
  • Scenario composition realism: Are the elements of the scene, such as the number of agents, placement, and diversity, consistent with actual road environments?
  • Interaction realism: Do agents respond to each other in socially and contextually realistic ways?
  • Event flow frequency and distribution realism: Do key events (e.g., cut-ins, near-misses) occur at rates similar to what’s observed in real-world data?
1.4 Scenario Coverage

Quantifies how comprehensively the simulation explores the Operational Design Domain (ODD) and performance space.

  • ODD coverage: Are we testing across the full range of relevant conditions (e.g., road types, curvatures, intersections)?
  • Performance coverage: Are we exposing the system to sufficiently challenging or critical conditions to assess safety and robustness?

2. Sub-System-Level Simulation Fidelity

2.1 Sensor Simulation Fidelity

Evaluates the realism of synthetic sensor outputs. This includes how accurately lidar, radar, and camera simulations reflect actual sensor limitations, noise, and environmental effects.

  • Synthetic sensor data fidelity: How close is the simulated raw sensor data to real data in terms of resolution, distortion, and latency?
  • Environmental realism: Are lighting, reflectivity, weather, and occlusions accurately modeled to influence sensor behavior?
  • Repeatability & determinism: Is the sensor output deterministic under the same conditions, enabling reliable comparisons and regression testing?

2.2. Vehicle Model Fidelity

Assesses the accuracy of the simulated vehicle’s physics and dynamics compared to a real vehicle. This includes:

  • Kinematic and dynamic fidelity: How accurately do the simulated vehicle’s acceleration, braking, steering, and suspension match a real vehicle’s performance under various conditions?
  • Tire-road contact model realism: Does the tire model accurately represent real-world tire behavior including surface conditions affecting grip, slip, and temperature effects?
  • Powertrain realism: Does the simulated powertrain (engine, engine type, transmission) accurately replicate the performance and characteristics of a real vehicle’s powertrain?

The Data Backbone for Measuring Simulation Credibility

To evaluate simulation fidelity in a meaningful way, you need comparable data across both simulated and real-world domains. Foretellix addresses this through a centralized database that brings together enriched simulation logs, drive logs, and re-simulations, providing a unified foundation for credibility assessment.

This infrastructure includes:

  • Ingest of drive logs: Real-world recordings from the AV system, which serve as the reference point for evaluating simulated performance and behavior.
  • Generation of simulation logs: Logs generated from Foretellix’s scenario-based simulation runs, including both abstract and concrete test cases.
  • Resimulations via Smart Replay: Specific real-world events are reconstructed in simulation using Smart Replay. These replays provide a one-to-one comparison between observed and simulated behavior, especially for ego and actor trajectories.
  • Enrichment and annotation with Foretify Evaluate: Both drive and simulation logs are processed through Foretify Evaluate to add critical context, such as scenario labels, KPI calculations, safety metrics, and coverage classifications.

Once unified, this annotated dataset enables both trajectory-based comparisons (for reproduction fidelity) and statistical analyses (for system-level and scenario-level fidelity). The result is a structured, traceable, and scalable way to assess whether simulated behavior aligns with the real world, and where deviations or uncertainties remain.

From Measurement to Confidence

The goal of Foretellix’s approach is not just to describe realism, but to make it actionable. By measuring simulation fidelity across well-defined dimensions, backing those measurements with data, and providing insightful visualizations, AV teams can begin to answer critical questions with clarity:

  • Where are the gaps in our current test coverage?
  • How much uncertainty is present in our simulation results?
  • Which deviations matter, and what’s causing them?
  • When can simulation-based findings be trusted to reflect real-world outcomes?

This framework supports both debugging (e.g., identifying why a simulated behavior diverges from its real-world counterpart) and strategic validation (e.g., determining whether enough of the operational domain has been explored to release a system safely).

Ultimately, this shift from intuition-driven evaluation to structured, data-backed assessment lays the foundation for simulation to become a defensible, auditable, and trusted part of the AV safety case.